Bolton (a); The Preview

Jon: I wouldn’t say you’ve turned a corner just yet, but this week’s victory is really timely. Feels like you might be in with a shout of survival again. It seems like, unlike other years, it really might be a question of who is the least shit from the bottom five, rather than anyone going on a sustained run. Can Phil Parkinson pull off another miracle?

Rob: If you’d asked me this 24 hours ago, the answer would have been an emphatic “No.” I presumed we were doomed. Saturday’s performance against Preston was bordering on disgraceful, and it looked like the fight had gone. So to then bounce back on Tuesday with not only a first away win in 6 months but our first win of 2019 and only our second win since September – well, let’s just say it was a surprise.

As for whether Parkinson can pull off a miracle? I don’t see why not, on the basis of that performance. We’ve been terrible since the fifth match of the season but we’re still somehow only two points away from safety, which tells you a lot about the teams around us. Although annoyingly, it also looks like Rotherham are finding a bit of form too. If the players can show the same fight and effort they did at Birmingham, then absolutely yes. But it’s a really big ask given what we’ve seen the rest of the season.

Tricky one with Rotherham – they seem to be playing well and Paul Warne certainly has them fantastically drilled, but they can’t convert draws into wins. I’m thinking that will be the key for any side that gets out of the mess they’ve made for themselves.

Might be an obvious question to ask, but given you seem to have a couple of individuals who on their day can change games, why has it gone so wrong this season? After the great escape last term I certainly felt you were better placed to at least trouble the lower mid table this time around?

Yeah, I have faith that Rotherham won’t pick up too much form, based on the season thus far.

I think the pertinent point in your question is “on their day.” We have players like Sammy Ameobi, Craig Noone and Will Buckley who, on their day, can have a great game, but aren’t able to sustain form over a number of matches. Ameobi, in particular, is the rawest talent we have in terms of footballing ability. He has it in his locker to score a screamer out of nowhere, but all too often he goes missing in matches and he’s been very poor this season generally.

When you look at it, we haven’t conceded too many more than most of the teams in the league – especially when you consider we got hit for 6 at Hull. The major problem has been scoring goals. Norwich have scored nearly three times more goals than us – 60 plays 21 – and we’ve scored 10 less goals than any side in the league other than Ipswich. We struggle to create chances, but when we do we lack a clinical striker that’s able to stick them away.

But looking deeper, the main reason why it’s gone so wrong and we haven’t kicked on this season is the lack of finances. We simply can’t compete with the likes of Leeds, Middlesbrough, West Brom and even Reading – who did some great business in January to ease their relegation concerns – and we’re left to pick up the scraps, the loan deals and free agents that no-one else wants.

So often it will come down to finances, although hopefully we’re seen to be bucking that trend with such a small outlay for the success we’ve enjoyed this season. What’s the current situation at Bolton? I can’t keep up, first it was talk of administration, then a HMRC winding up order, more recently there appears to be takeover plans/negotiations – is the saga’s end possibly in sight?

Yeah there’s been talk of takeover talks since pretty much the day the chairman took over 3 years ago. How true or advanced any of these have been is anyone’s guess. There have apparently been more advanced takeover bids in recent weeks, but I’m remaining sceptical.

The current financial situation remains pretty poor – as you guys will know from us failing to pay you for the loans of Remi Matthews and Yanic Wildschut. Players haven’t been paid on time several times – to the extent that they went on strike and refused to play a pre-season friendly- we’ve had 6 winding-up petitions from HMRC alone in the last 16 months, and there’s an outstanding loan of lb5 million due next month. There’s new debts appearing almost weekly, so it makes for pretty depressing reading.

Sad to see, fingers crossed the takeover happens soon. Bolton is too good a club to be going through all this.

You mention young Remi, who will be the second former goalkeeper we’ve faced in the space of 4 days. The first one put in a MOTM performance, and we’re expecting Remi to be motivated given the rumours are he was promised a chance as number 1 this term, only to have a shaky pre-season and Tim Krul was duly quickly brought in.

How has Matthews done so far? His performances seemed to be fairly restricted up until recently?

Also – shall we talk about Yanic or is he just best forgotten to us all?

I saw that Rudd performance last night, hopefully Remi can emulate that this weekend. He’s been restricted to occasional appearances here and there when Ben Alnwick picked up a couple of injuries. But he’s come in and played the last four league matches and seems to be improving with every performance. He was our man-of-the-match in the home game against Preston, making a string of saves that kept the scoreline respectable, then made a vital last-minute save from Che Adams to ensure we beat Birmingham on Tuesday night, which was massive for us. I think he’s played his way into being our first-choice goalkeeper, which is great to see.

And yeah, the less said about Yanic the better. He scored on his debut to help us beat West Brom away on the opening day, then scored the winner at Reading two weeks later and we thought we’d pulled off a real coup. Unfortunately, he’s been really poor since then and struggled to get into the team before picking up an injury that’s ruled him out for a while. I suspect his time at Bolton, and Norwich for that matter, is done.

Turning to Saturday then, it’s likely we’ll set up in a 4-2-3-1 and try to dominate the ball. That may be hampered by the fact our two main playmakers are both injured, but if we can play through the midfield thirds we’ll definitely create chances. What can we expect from the Trotters?

That’s good news for us. I don’t think you’ll have too much of a problem dominating the ball. We really struggle with keeping possession, especially against the top teams and even at home. Although having said that, our play was much improved on Tuesday night and we actually played a bit of football times – even having the most possession in the first half (albeit 51%-49%), which is almost unheard of.

Phil Parkinson played two out-and-out strikers in a 3-5-2 formation in the trip to Birmingham, so I’d expect him to stick with that on Saturday. But before you get too concerned, our two strikers Clayton Donaldson and Josh Magennis had gone a combined 56 matches without a league goal until the former’s last-minute consolation against Preston. Magennis, on the other hand, still hasn’t scored a league goal since September.

Another of your former men Gary O’Neil could play in midfield – although he did go off at half-time at Birmingham – and he’ll be the main source of creation from midfield, especially as exciting 17-year-old midfielder Luca Connell picked up an injury last weekend. We also have a bit of an injury concern at the back, with Marc Wilson potentially joining Jack Hobbs on the sidelines in midweek. That’s seeing Craig Noone fill in as a left wing-back, which would be a major concern against your wingers.

One point of interest… Centre-backs Mark Beevers, who returned from injury on Tuesday, and David Wheater have played together 15 times this season. In those games, Bolton have won six, drawn four and only lost five times. Without them in the side, we’ve won just one, drawn four and lost 15.

Well that’s encouraging, at least a little bit anyway.

Specific prediction time then. I’m going for a 2-0 City victory, with a 39th minute sending off for one of your back line, followed by a second half dogged defensive performance from your lot. We finally break your resolve though, with a Kenny McLean free kick on 86, Pukki doubles the lead on 90. You?

Classic Norwich late drama then. The defeat at Preston probably isn’t ideal for us, and I’m expecting a Norwich response. I can see you guys dominating possession and us getting run ragged – especially down the wings – after two tough games in the previous week, but I think we will get something out of your defence. I’ll go with a 3-1 Norwich win. Goals for Pukki and Buendia, then Rhodes off the bench because he loves scoring against us, with a consolation from… O’Neil against his former club, if he plays.

Thanks Rob, good luck for the season (after Saturday).