The ACN Championship Preview 2023/24 – The Runners And Riders

If I had to sum up the Championship in two words, I’d probably use something like ‘chaotic mediocrity’. Ever since that incredible 2018/19 campaign we all remember fondly, the standard has dropped off significantly – thanks in part to Covid but also Brexit regulations, which limit creativity in the transfer market for those with more modest means.

Several parachute teams with bloated budgets have made short work of bouncing back since then, with all six of the last three seasons’ automatically promoted sides having received the much-maligned Premier League payouts. It’s hard to envisage the recently relegated clubs not dominating the landscape of the second tier this season as well, making the task of breaking into the top six that much more difficult for the rest.

The mantra of hard work beating talent when talent doesn’t work hard enough applies off the pitch too, especially at this level

Norwich and Watford are both still collecting parachute payments but last season, you wouldn’t have known it. After winning the title the previous two times we were in this division, we found 2022/23 a painful watch culminating in a bottom-half finish – an unmitigated, mismanaged disaster. While we languished, Luton Town and Coventry City were able to play out the most feel-good final in the play-offs in many a year.

Congratulations to both, especially the Hatters, but with the resources of those coming down from the top flight now dwarfing the rest of the competition to such an extent, success stories such as these tend only to come about when those with the ‘haves’ spurn that advantage. The mantra of hard work beating talent when talent doesn’t work hard enough applies off the pitch too, especially at this level – that’s how the division retains that element of predictable unpredictability. Not being ‘up for it’; failing to adequately rebuild to turn a corner from previous stale squads, is exactly how teams get stuck down here.

Norwich will get one more chance before Premier League income completely dries up. And with under a week to go until kick off, the jury is very much out as to whether the scarred and knackered squad has been sufficiently re-energised and improved. If pre-season an indicator, there does appear to be a greater defensive hunger and resilience. Norwich have previously looked stressed at the very idea of the opposition having territory, where now there seems a greater desire to protect their goal properly. Early kickabouts with Barnet and King’s Lynn aside, Norwich goalkeepers have only picked the ball out of their net once against decent European opposition. While it’s just the phoney war rather than a cold, wet midweek in the middle of the 46-game slog, there has, noticeably, been a greater ability to resist pressure and navigate the more stodgy periods of play.

This is what it’s like to be a more typical Championship outfit

While the recruitment hasn’t set anyone’s pulse racing, it has all been… necessary. Three of the four freebies added in the transfer market have so far addressed the dire need for a more steely, streetwise streak, and we’ve already seen Ashley Barnes squaring up to opponents in games with absolutely nothing on the line. Good. But Norwich will need so much more.

The midfield balance, the creative spark and the actual goal output in a world without Teemu Pukki remain major question marks. We’ve been spoilt for a good couple of decades. We’re used to having an otherworldly talent at this level – be it Huckerby, Hoolahan, Maddison or Buendía. This is what it’s like to be a more typical Championship outfit. We’ve still got a capable side, but it’ll be harder to separate ourselves from the other capable sides without a player of this calibre; without an X factor. Gabby Sara could get there this season, but he’s probably the only one.

Looking at the three coming down though, plus last year’s contenders who came up short, you fear this isn’t the year in which the workman-like side with a lack of star power will succeed. Leicester, Leeds and Southampton are bringing a level of clout that the second tier has never seen before. I’m going to go out on a whim and suggest Leicester and Leeds are the first clubs in Championship history to feature in the top 20 of Deloitte’s Football Money League – they rank 17th and 18th respectively in terms of revenue generated in 2022, only just behind AC Milan who have <checks notes> seven European Cups/Champions Leagues. This is why it’s worth existing in the Premier League for a couple of years, I suppose.

Even with the departures of James Maddison, Harvey Barnes and Youri Tielemans at Leicester, they’ll still be left with a juggernaut of a squad for this level. Not to mention that they’ve already reinvested some of the Maddison/Barnes windfall on two recent England internationals in Conor Coady and Harry Winks. They are a team that we actually competed well against in three of the four Premier League meetings in 19/20 and 21/22 and, as silly as it sounds, I can potentially see us matching up well against them in the two fixtures this time. Keeping pace over 46 games, however, will likely be a different kettle of fish. They’re probably going to win the league, possibly with a similar points total to Burnley, but with perhaps less of a cushion to the next two or three chasing sides due to the fact they too would also be runaway winners in any other year.

While Russ Martin’s Southampton will be more prone to slipping on banana skins, Michael Carrick’s Middlesbrough should be able to pick up from where they left off

Leeds, despite loaning out several and not adding any besides Ethan Ampadu (at the time of writing), will be an almost unstoppable force when everything’s pointing in the right direction. But as we’ve learnt from their previous Championship spell, that’s far from a given. We’ve seen how quickly they can ‘fall apart again’ – their expectant home crowd can become a massive handicap rather than an advantage and when they finally got out of the division three years ago, it was in front of no one. We all know Daniel Farke is probably the ideal character to channel that fervour positively and, after a characteristically slow start while the Farkeball culture is being embedded, they’re far more likely to be in the automatic promotion race than not. The most difficult opponent they may have to overcome will be themselves, and Elland Road itself.

It should be a close race between them, Middlesbrough and Southampton for the other automatic promotion spot but while Russ Martin’s Southampton will be more prone to slipping on banana skins, Michael Carrick’s Middlesbrough should be able to pick up from where they left off. Morgan Rogers should flourish here, having starred on loan at Lincoln but only showed glimpses at Blackpool. They may need to find another striker of Cameron Archer’s ilk to come in before the end of August, if Archer himself isn’t available for another loan. Should they find one, they’re very well placed.

Southampton still have some talented young players and, with Martin in charge, a very obsessive possession style – of which I’m not a fan. It just doesn’t translate particularly well for Championship football where a lot of sides still willingly surrender the ball, provided it’s in areas of little consequence. His Swansea side would dominate all the ball retention stats, even more than Burnley last season, but rarely actually dominate games.

Dean Smith’s last win as Norwich manager came in South Wales, having scored the only goal of the game, from almost our only shot, in the first minute. And there have been several other occasions where Martin’s teams have beaten themselves with either generally poor defending or putting goals on a silver platter for opponents while attempting to play out from the back. The Saints’ patience will sometimes count for little when they inevitably concede odd goals like this here and there and, if last season is to be an indicator, they don’t have the leaders to refocus the young players who’ll invariably be the ones making said errors. Millwall will bully them and, dare I say it, will Norwich relish the prospect of the week-two fixture at St Mary’s?

The Sky Blues are in good shape off the pitch, with Doug King ending several years of neglect under the previous owners

The rest of the top six should come from the likes of Sunderland, Coventry, Millwall and, despite the continued chaos, Watford. This is also a tier of sides we should also expect to be among. Coventry have lost 21-goal Viktor Gyokeres but have also made a big splash in replacing him – Ellis Simms arriving from Everton for what is believed to be an £8 million fee. Simms notched seven goals at Sunderland in the first half of last season and has the right build to be a Championship number nine; quite Carlton Morris-esque. The Sky Blues are in good shape off the pitch, with Doug King ending several years of neglect under the previous owners, and their fans deserve to enjoy what should be another solid season. Sunderland and their exciting collection of young playmakers, similarly, will come again but might struggle to match last season’s sixth place without Amad Diallo – undoubtedly one of the best loanees of last season.

The first of Watford’s three managers this season will be Valérien Ismaël, although you suspect that his days might be numbered. While I don’t wish any ill will on Ismaël, I would quite like to see Watford’s classless hiring and firing culture suddenly stop working and for them to remain a distance from truly contending. Ismaïla Sarr and João Pedro are gone and in comes Tom Ince. Yikes, quite the downgrade. Similarly to ourselves, if they are to be in the conversation, they’ll need to start grinding out wins as the luxury players have all gone. Watford aren’t typically this sort of side.

Millwall are Millwall. Any trip to The Den, on any day, in any season, is a true Championship acid test. Win here, you can win anywhere – in theory. The Lions will probably be around the top six again this season, but you can never confidently place them in the top six as they always find a way of coming up short. Maybe this is the year the glass ceiling is smashed, but until it happens, it’s not something you can put a pound on.

That lot down the road. Don’t tell anyone, but I went to watch them at Cambridge last weekend – sitting among the U’s fans of course. Kieran McKenna has them playing the modern game, with neat patterns progressing through the thirds, which is a massive leap forward from when the second tier saw them last. I’ve also seen them live a couple of times in League One and while they were able to control the lion’s share of proceedings on both occasions, I haven’t seen them move the ball with the same speed and slickness for a full 90. And while they do like taking plenty of shots, they were by no means creating clear-cut chance after clear cut chance.

The same was true at The Abbey where, for the first half an hour, they outplayed their third-tier opposition between both boxes but only had one opportunity of note to double their early lead (they ended up losing 2-1). They’ll be nowhere near the bottom, sadly, but I also can’t see them having the sort of cutting edge that Sunderland had last season, nor the star quality the Black Cats had in the aforementioned Diallo. Omari Hutchinson showed glimpses of talent, but an inconsistent final product. But there certainly isn’t anyone else that’ll really keep opposition managers up at night. FourFourTwo and Not The Top 20 Podcast are really buying what the Suffolk club are selling and have put them uncomfortably high in their 1-24 predictions. I’ll put them in the 12-15 range, and I think I’m closer to being right.

They could score 3 or 4, or concede 3 or 4. They’re always half alive, half dead

Next comes a raft of teams I’m labelling as ‘Schrödinger’s Cats’, as they perhaps best epitomise the Championship in that you can never really get a firm handle on them. The fortunes of these sides seem to fluctuate week to week more so than any others in the division. They could quite easily stun one of the table toppers, or be humbled by a Rotherham or a Plymouth. They could score 3 or 4, or concede 3 or 4. They’re always half alive, half dead. You might get one of your toughest games of the season against one of these, or one of the easiest – you won’t know until after you’ve kicked off.

Swansea under Russ Martin were either as impressive as Burnley, or woefully toothless. Michael Duff is a typical Swans appointment to replace him. While the football will look different, he should be able to achieve similar results. Blackburn were wildly polarising last season, managing to go all the way until January without drawing a game. They managed nine from that point on, however, with five coming in the last eight games – ultimately costing them a play-off place. It’s hard to envisage them challenging again without Ben Brereton Díaz and the injury-plagued Bradley Dack.

Bristol City and Preston are always capable of good results both home and away, but there’s rarely ever a sign of one incoming. And I can’t tell if Alex Neil has gotten Stoke moving in a more positive direction. I want to say yes, and they have recruited well this summer, but when you’ve not come remotely close to the top six in five seasons since relegation, it’s hard to make a case for this being the year. Something tells me Chiquinho, a Portuguese winger they’ve brought in on loan from Wolves, will be one to watch.

Huddersfield, Rotherham and Plymouth will probably expect to be at the wrong end, but their players, manager and supporters will all be bought into the fight

Everyone below this are likely to be in a relegation scrap, although not all will have the minerals for it. Huddersfield, Rotherham and Plymouth will probably expect to be at the wrong end, but their players, manager and supporters will all be bought into the fight and every week, you can expect them to give maximum effort. Cardiff, QPR and Sheffield Wednesday, however, have been sleepwalking for a few seasons but will still likely harbour delusions of finishing much higher. These are the three teams I expect the most no-show performances from and one or two may end up relegated. Dropping points against any of these, plus Hull who we kick things off with on Saturday, would be a cause for concern – regardless of whether you consider us to be in the play-off mix or not.

If the eleven that started the Olympiacos friendly stay fit for most of the season, it isn’t a bad side.

If you’ve gotten this far, you’re probably wanting me to put a concrete place in the table on Norwich. Ok. Ninth. There you go. We’re going to be a solid, unspectacular outfit lacking in creativity and goals compared to the teams coming down, and a couple of those who stayed down last season. This is an improvement on being both unsolid and unspectacular in 2022/23. Teams will frustrate us at Carrow Road just as we frustrate one or two of the top sides ourselves.

Depth will become an issue at some point. If the eleven that started the Olympiacos friendly stay fit for most of the season, it isn’t a bad side. Should Sara or one of the first choice strikers be sidelined, however, the backup options have been less than convincing. So yes, ninth. Which is also what I said ahead of the 2018/19 campaign…

Even if Norwich remain unenjoyable though, the league in general should offer up more entertainment. I look forward to watching more games as a neutral, having barely tuned in at all after the World Cup break last year – the standard was poor and the script was set by that point. Burnley were too good, Blades were dull but better than the rest. This time we have Leeds (managed by Farke) and Ipswich, which are two big reasons why you can’t pretend to be disinterested. Bring on the ‘twists and turns’, as Sky love to say, and the general madness of it all.